An early look at the 2011 schedule

Posted on February 10, 2011 by Ryan Monceaux

First, here’s the 2011 schedule:

Sep. 3 – UCLA
Sep. 10 – @UNT
Sep. 17 – @La Tech
Sep. 24 – Georgia State
Oct. 1 –  @UTEP
Oct. 8 – ECU
Oct. 15 – BYE
Oct. 22 – Marshall
Oct. 29 – Rice
Nov. 5 – @UAB
Nov. 12 – @Tulane
Nov. 19 – SMU
Nov. 26 –  @Tulsa

With the full 2011 football schedule coming out, we can now step back and look at a few components and how the schedule will help or hurt the UH football team. I think this is a pretty fair and actually fairly helpful schedule for the most part.

Things to like:

  • Non-conference games being played first. Four warm-up games for three new OL, a revamped secondary, JUCO recruits and QB Case Keenum to adjust and ready themselves for CUSA play.
  • No stretch of three-straight road games. It’s pretty ridiculous to play three-straight on the road but we’ve done it each of the last two years. Thankfully, C-USA figured this out in 2011.
  • Both back-to-back road game stretches are completely winnable. A second- or third-road game in a row can often times be complicated – thankfully, the UNT/LaTech and UAB/Tulane back-to-backs should not be a huge problem in and of themselves.
  • We’re home for over a month with ECU, bye, Marshall and Rice. This is the time to really clean up in the conference race.
  • Three-straight CUSA West games to end the year. Gives us the opportunity to make up a lot of ground real fast if necessary.
  • Six games, bye week, then six more games. Pretty even schedule – no glaring competitive imbalances.

Things not to like:

  • I don’t like playing SMU after the Tulane roadie. Tulane has the feel of a trap game and they will be playing for Bob Toledo’s job by then. SMU will be our game of the year if we take care of business previously; Tulane could be one of those “don’t get up for” games.
  • Three of the last four on the road. To get to the CUSA title game, we’re going to have to earn it in November. No, UAB, Tulane and Tulsa aren’t a gauntlet – but it’s still three November road games.
  • I’d prefer to play two home games to begin the season with as many unknowns as we will have in 2011. There are a lot of first-year or recently hurt players to weave into a system in a hurry.

In total, this is a schedule where you could make a run. There are no obvious holes and there are no season-killing teams on this schedule. Coach Sumlin has to like his chances in this schedule a lot more than the first three he was dealt.

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Non-league schedule a benefit for Cougars

Posted on January 20, 2011 by Ryan Monceaux

With only one BCS opponent, UH’s non-conference gives the Cougars the opportunity to host the C-USA title game and win our first league title since 2006.

In my opinion, the schedule has a lot more to do with our chances of winning C-USA than most people give it credit for. The schedule can somewhat dictate who is healthy, what games your team gets up for, and where a team can come out flat. With the assumption that the following is our out-of-conference schedule, let’s take a look.

Sept. 3 UCLA
Sept. 10 @UNT
Sept. 17 @La Tech
Sept. 24 Georgia State

The first thing that stands out is there is only one BCS opponent. I believe the 2009 and 2010 teams were beat up by the massive OLs and DLs of Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Mississppi State and UCLA (not to mention Case Keenum’s injury). These BCS games have resulted in more injuries, more guys prone to injury and lessened our chance to be healthy for the C-USA slate. Also, we play our BCS opponent (UCLA) first in 2011; we will go into that game at full-strength get it over with and then focus on a lighter and more manageable schedule.

For the first time since 2008, and for only the third time in the last 15 years, we play all of our OOC games to begin the year. This gives us plenty of time to get Case readjusted to the speed of the game before he faces conference opponents. In our situation, winning Conference USA should be our only focus in 2011. Forget the distractions of the BCS or TCU or whomever and focus on winning our league.

With two drivable road games and two home games, this schedule sets up where many fans will be able to see all OOC games. Add in four CUSA home games, a drivable trip to New Orleans and a flight to either El Paso or Tulsa and many fans will be able to see the Cougars 10 times or more in 2011.

The trap game here is Louisiana Tech. After a major home game to start the season – capped-off by Case returning to action after injury – followed by a “big” road game by helping UNT to open their new stadium, LTU sets up to be our let-down game in the OOC block of the schedule. After two emotional games to start the season, look for the Cougars to possibly come out slow in a small, half-empty stadium in Ruston. The Coogs easily out-talent the Bulldogs and should win the game but if there is any chance for a non-conference stumble, this is it. It’s rare for a college program to be able to get “up” for three-straight games; this could be a hard-fought win.

This OOC schedule is a real advantage for the Cougars in 2011. By limiting the BCS opponents and by giving Case and Co. four games to prepare for C-USA play, the schedule sets up for us to win Conference USA. Obviously, how our conference schedule sets up will be a huge factor – that is usually released in late February or early March. But so far, the schedule lines up in our favor.

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Keenum Back in 2011

Posted on January 14, 2011 by Ryan Monceaux

The NCAA threw a rare bone our way on Friday: giving Case Keenum a sixth year of eligibility. On almost every level, this is a huge win for UH and the Cougar football program that is desperate for good news. The 2011 season now sets up to be a huge opportunity for the Cougars and for Case.

But at the same time, 2011 will make or break the legacy of Case Keenum. The big yards and BCS wins of yesteryear can only carry his legacy so far; the biggest vindication will be winning a league title in 2011 and going to the Liberty Bowl. Quarterbacks are judged on the overall merits of the supporting cast around them and with a returning Charles Sims, a rejuvenated Bryce Beall as well as a superstar duo in Patrick Edwards and Tyrone Carrier, Case should have the weapons to take the Cougars to the next level.

Case has done just about everything you can do at the quarterback position – except win the league title. 2011 is his chance to take that step and cement his place in Cougar history.

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It’s the money, stupid: Why the BCS will fail

Posted on December 22, 2010 by Ryan Monceaux

There has been lots of talk in recent weeks about Dan Wetzel’s book, Death to the BCS. In it, he tells stories of bowl game excess, flimsy charity talk, and how little money teams actually make from the bowls. The simple fact is that the current system, anchored by the BCS bowls, is bad for everyone. The system is broken and there’s only one way to fix it: a college football playoff. But it won’t look like you’ve been led to believe.

The real issue for non-BCS schools isn’t the BCS itself; it’s the caste system of have- and have-nots and the money differences throughout. The $17M BCS game payouts are staggering but the participating schools see very little of that due to conference profit-sharing. The BCS schools aren’t getting rich off of the BCS but they are breaking the bank from TV contracts, gate receipts, suites and club level seating, apparel contracts, merchandise sales and more.

In fact, the bowls are the only part of the equation that doesn’t produce money for the BCS schools. Every other mechanism produces money for them at every level. With ADs struggling to find new sources of revenue, the most dynamic and most far-reaching way is to go to a playoff system.

I believe the “major players” in the BCS conferences will break away from the NCAA and form their own division – a playoff division that brings in boatloads of money. They will not want to share it with the non-BCS conferences nor some of the deadweight in their own leagues – hence, the reason for forming an entirely new division. Fewer schools, more TV slots, more money and the thing their boosters crave: a playoff that settles it on the field.

It will be a fundamental shift and will severely weaken the NCAA and the Football Bowl Subdivision. Most likely, the BCS schools will continue to play the FBS/non-BCS schools because they quick-strike paydays against (generally) weaker programs; when the BCS schools breakaway, the non-BCS programs will get even weaker, have tougher times recruiting, selling TV packages, and sustaining many of their bowl games.

The only thing standing in the way of this scenario occurring are the old line college presidents. But with a new wave of presidents coming into power – school presidents that act more as CEO than administrator – more and more will support the decision to breakaway and even more will want to ensure that they are not left behind. The ADs are ready to make a deal for a playoff as it will instantly mean an additional $10-15MM a year for their programs – and in some cases, even more than that. The charge will be led by the programs that already make the most: major powers like Texas, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, Michigan, OU, and Tennessee.

The system will change and it will happen in the next few years.  The bowl situation is not sustainable; schools cannot afford to continue going to bowl games that do not benefit them financially.

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Cougars lack experience on roster

Posted on December 17, 2010 by Ryan Monceaux

The 2010 UH football roster shows a program in upheaval: a ton of freshmen or otherwise inexperienced players, lots of walk-ons, and very few guys with several years of experience.

Looking back, it should be easy to see why the team struggled: we were young and inexperienced all over the roster. Combined with the fact that two of the most senior starters (Keenum and Nicholson – three letters each) went down to injury, and it’s easy to see why we were in the situation we found ourselves.

Successful programs are stable programs; they rely on a heavy dose of fourth- and fifth-year seniors. On the 2010 Cougar team, only four players had three letters going into the season – meaning, they had played and lettered three years previous – Keenum, Nicholson, Shoemaker and Isaiah Thompson.

Compare that to the number of players listed as freshman, coming off the practice squad, transferred in or otherwise with no letters: 74. That means we went into 2010 with 74 players that had no previous DI experience and only four that were heading into their fourth year on the team. Forty-four players on the roster were listed as freshmen.

Along the OL and DL, where players need time to grow, get bigger and stronger, the lack of experience is most concerning. On the offensive line, there were only 12 letters coming into 2010 – just six players with experience. There were only eight letters along the defensive line in 2010 – and one of those was won by the injured Zeke Riser.

It’d be easy to just chalk up 2010 to youth but the issue isn’t the young guys; it’s the lack of seniors. The lack of players that can make a difference for four years. Recruiting tends to be judged on the number of stars or how many players get into school; in reality, it should be judged on how many of those players are still contributing four years later. If that’s the indicator, we’ve struggled in recruiting in recent years. And it shows.

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